Bitcoin Halving 2020: History & Price Prediction (A Simple Explanation)


Hello! I’m Crypto Casey. In this video we
will be talking about the Bitcoin halving or “halvening” event that will take place
in May of 2020. We will go over what halving is, why having takes place, and
what implications halving has for the future of Bitcoin. There are three key
concepts about the Bitcoin network you need to know that will make Bitcoin
halving easier to understand. The concepts we will go over are the Bitcoin
blockchain, Bitcoin mining, and the Bitcoin supply. Let’s get started. Concept
number one: the Bitcoin blockchain. First, let’s briefly talk about the Bitcoin
blockchain. The Bitcoin blockchain is basically a live running record of all
Bitcoin transactions. As I’ve explained in previous videos, the simplest way to
understand what blockchain means is by separating the word “block” from the word
“chain.” So imagine records of individual transactions like payments sent to or
from one person to another getting listed or indexed one after the other.
Once a certain amount of transactions in the list has been reached, a block is
formed. This is because each block has a maximum amount of transaction data it
can store. Once the maximum amount of transaction data for the block has been
met, the block is added behind the previous block of transactions. Now
imagine these blocks of transactions linked together with a chain. So block
chain is simply groups of transaction data that are linked together. The basic
structure of the Bitcoin blockchain consists of a network of computers
around the world with Bitcoin software installed on them. When Bitcoin
transactions occur, the data is communicated to this network of
computers that validate the transaction, add the transaction to their copy of the
Bitcoin ledger, and then broadcast the ledger changes to the other computers on
the network. There’s a maximum amount of data that can be saved per block so
approximately every 10 minutes a new block of Bitcoin transactions is created
verified and published to the Bitcoin blockchain if you want a more in-depth
explanation about what blockchain is and why it was developed check out my video
guide by clicking on the link above awesome concept to Bitcoin mining next
let’s talk about how all of these Bitcoin transactions are getting
verified on the Bitcoin network the verification and posting of transactions
on the blockchain is completed by miners via a process called mining miners are
people are pools of people that use computer processing power to maintain
the Bitcoin blockchain this includes keeping the ledger of Bitcoin
transactions clean consistent and permanent by grouping new transactions
into blocks and broadcasting them to the rest of the Bitcoin network for
verification each new block of transactions has a cryptographic hash of
the block published before it which is what links all of the blocks of
transactions together to form the blockchain so for a new block to be
accepted by the network miners are required to follow a proof-of-work
system which involves creating a new cryptographic hash of the newly
completed block so new blocks of transactions have a unique hash from the
previous block and to get published to the ledger
it requires the creation of another unique hash which will go through a
validation process and then get passed on to the next block and so on and so
forth to create a new unique hash for the block of transactions miners compete
with each other using computer power to try to be the first one to come up with
a 64 digit hexadecimal number or the hash that is less than or equal to the
current difficulty target of the network which warrants its own separate video
explanation so without losing sight of the focus of this Bitcoin having video
check out my other video using the link above if you’d like to learn more about
the technical intricacies of the Bitcoin mining process the basic concept you
need to know about Bitcoin mining to better understand the Bitcoin having
event is that miners are rewarded with Bitcoin each time they verify a new
block of transactions mining rewards are a combination of newly minted Bitcoin
units that were not previously circulating and transaction fees of
Bitcoin that were already circulating these rewards are in place to
incentivize miners to participate in the mining process to ensure the Bitcoin
network continues to be audited and essentially maintained
cool let’s move on concept number three the Bitcoin supply Bitcoin is a digital
currency developed by an unknown person or group of people that go by the
pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto the more you learn about and start to understand
Bitcoin the more similarities you will see between Bitcoin and gold this is
because Satoshi developed the digital currency Bitcoin to intentionally Harbor
characteristics of the precious metal gold we recognized this in the mining
process we previously discussed prospecting for new gold deposits
building out a mine and operating in mine
to extract gold is laborious similar to the immense computing power required by
Bitcoin miners to perform guesswork to create the new unique hashes to validate
new blocks of transactions another gold light characteristics Satoshi programmed
into bitcoins is a maximum supply the total number of bitcoins I can ever
exist is 21 million units this 21 million unit maximum was established to
mirror Gold’s stable inflation rate you’ve probably read and watched the
content explaining how Bitcoin is inflationary while other content
explains how Bitcoin is deflationary it’s important to understand that there
are two different definitions of inflation the most modern and common use
of the word inflation refers to a decrease in the purchasing power of
money the older traditional use of the word inflation refers to an increase in
the supply of money that is not backed by gold in the modern context of
inflation bitcoin is deflationary because over
time its purchasing power will increase instead of decrease due to its fixed
supply one way to understand this concept is to consider in the future
when new gold prospects become extremely rare in mining costs of new prospects
increase until it becomes too expensive to mine new gold as a result the fixed
supply of pre mined gold will increase in value over time since gold cannot be
created make sense right in the traditional context of inflation bitcoin
is inflationary because the supply of Bitcoin which is not backed by gold is
increasing as miners mint new Bitcoin through validating new blocks of
transactions currently around 18 million bitcoins are in circulation of the 21
million total supply according to its current track the last Bitcoin will be
mined in the year 2140 which is 100 and 20 years from now so in our lifetime the
supply of Bitcoin will continue to increase great now that you’ve learned a
little bit about the Bitcoin network Bitcoin mining and a fixed supply of
Bitcoin let’s talk about what having is why having takes place and what
implications having has for the future of Bitcoin number one what is having
having in terms of Bitcoin refers to the reduction in the Bitcoin block rewards
issued to miners by half currently the block reward for miners is
12.5 units of a newly minted Bitcoin that were not previously in circulation
when the halving occurs in May of 2020 the block reward will have or reduce by
half which will give miners 6.25 units of a newly minted Bitcoin per validated
block having was programmed to occur every 210,000 block and since a new
block of transactions is completed roughly every 10 minutes this works out
to an average having event every four years when Bitcoin was first developed
in 2009 the block reward was 50 bitcoins in 2012 the first having reduced the
block reward to 25 bitcoins and in 2016 the second having event reduced the
block reward to what it is at the time of this video which is 12.5 bitcoins
number – why does having occur Satoshi Nakamoto programmed the halving of newly
minted Bitcoin every two hundred ten thousand blocks to prevent inflation
from decreasing the purchasing power of Bitcoin Satoshi also factored in the
increase of technological advancement over time into bitcoins algorithm so the
faster new blocks are validated the more difficult creating new unique hashes for
new blocks will become at the current block reward rate of 12.5 Bitcoin per
block which occurs roughly every 10 minutes about 1,800 new bitcoins are
minted daily making the inflation rate in the traditional sense about 3.8
percent in after the halving of the block reward rate to 6.25 Bitcoin in May
about 900 new bitcoins will be minted daily
decreasing the annual inflation rate to 1.8% which will make Bitcoin less
inflationary than the US economy having the amount of newly minted Bitcoin in
segments controls the rate at which the finite or fixed supplies bitcoin is
titrated into circulation over time similar to gold this creates a
predictable and constantly decreasing inflation rate that will eventually
reach zero number three what implications having has for a Bitcoin
gold is considered one of the best stores of value because of its fixed
supply and since the supply is not extremely abundant gold is scarce this
scarcity is imposed by nature since we’re not able to create gold to
increase the supply similarly the algorithm that imposes bitcoins fixed
supply was designed to make Bitcoin even scarcer than gold so if demand remains
steady or increases for the fixed scarce supply of Bitcoin the price of Bitcoin
will experience positive long-term effects and after the halving in May the
supply of bitcoins will become even more scarce so let’s look at what happened
after previous Bitcoin having’s Bitcoin was around eleven dollars when the first
having occurred in November 2012 then in 2013 an entire year later Bitcoin spiked
to $1100 the highest Bitcoin had ever been at that time before dropping back
down to around $220 in remaining under $1,000 for the next few years in July of
2016 during the second having Bitcoin was around $600 and then spiked to
20,000 near the end of 2017 which was around 18 months later so historically
the 12 to 18 months immediately following a halving event Bitcoin
pricing didn’t show much movement also it’s not quite clear that the spikes in
price is 12 to 18 months after the having events actually correlate
exclusively with the halving the first Bitcoin price spike to 1100 happened an
entire year after the having him in and it seemed to correlate with the Cyprus
bailout the second Bitcoin price spike to $20,000 happened an entire 18 months
or year and a half after the halving took place
and it seemed to be caused by market manipulation as cryptocurrency was being
featured in mainstream media and attracting attention from the masses did
the having have an effect on the spike to $20,000 in late 2017 maybe not the
spike but it’s more probable that it’s been playing a role in maintaining
bitcoins price over 3,000 dollars since then so what does the historical data
tell us about the upcoming having event into May of 2020 as Bitcoin has become
more popular since the last having in 2016 the upcoming having in May is
likely already priced in and has been for a while there’s a lot of hype coming
out about the impending having so it’s likely that the price of Bitcoin drops
significantly following the having event due to so many inexperienced people and
investors operating off of the assumption that bitcoins price will
increase immediately after or shortly after at the halving as with previous
having events I wouldn’t expect to see any drastic
lasting changes do you exclusively to the halving event without a correlating
positive or negative outside force like government regulation market
manipulation an economic event or similar even then as with previous
having’s averaging 12 to 18 months before noticeable changes the bottom
line is this there is a lot of room for opposing theories opinions and
predictions about the future of Bitcoin pricing with regard to the halving in
May of 2020 and the years following so it’s important to do your own research
and draw your own conclusions about the impending Bitcoin having thanks for
taking the time to watch my video if you found the information helpful give this
video like and subscribe to my channel for more crypto related content so what
do you guys think the future holds for bitcoins pricing after the halving will
it fall will it rise in the comments below share your post having 6 months 12
months and 18 month Bitcoin price predictions be safe out there

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